Consequence Modelling Techniques

Date From: 18 September 2018
Date To: 20 September 2018
Location: United Kingdom
Description: Consequence modelling is used to predict accident effects and impact on people, the environment and property. This course will introduce the concept of loss of containment scenarios and guide you through which models are available and their suitability for different situations.
Event Type: IChemE Course
Venue: London, UK
Organiser: IChemE
Contact Name: Courses department
Contact Phone: +44 (0)1788 534496
Contact Email:

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Consequence Modelling TechniquesConsequence modelling is used to predict accident effects and impact on people, the environment and property. The course draws upon loss-of-containment scenarios and guides you through a range of models, using workshops and case studies, to demonstrate different approaches to consequence modelling.

The course includes exercises on scenario definition, selection of input parameters, simple modelling and interpretation of results.

Note: Delegates will need a Windows laptop, if this is a problem please let us know.

Download a course brochure >>

What you will learn

By the end of the course delegates will understand:

  • how to identify a set of major accident scenarios on a facility handling hazardous materials
  • which types of models available for different scenarios and which are appropriate at different stages of plant design or operation
  • the limitations of the various model types 
  • how to define the possible outcomes of hazardous material release eg fire, explosions and toxic effects 
  • the requirements for modelling these hazards
  • the possible impact of hazards on people, the environment and property 
  • the importance of defining source terms (initial conditions), including uncertainty 
  • how to specify a range of hazard studies and interpret the output 
  • how to interpret model results and how they are used in quantified risk analysis 
  • regulatory requirements for consequence modelling

Course outline

Day 1


  • basic concepts and definitions
  • consequences for modelling - fires, explosions and toxic effects
  • what is a model and when are they needed
  • source terms and consequences for liquid vessels and pipes, gas vessels and pipes, flashing liquids, two
    phase vessels and pipes, and time dependency

Day 2

  • basic hazard identification methods – HAZID, release scenarios, potential for explosions
  • dispersion models – passive/lighter than air, momentum jet, heavy gas and CFD techniques
  • transition from source model to dispersion model
  • interpretation of dispersion model results

Day 3

  • explosion modelling – VCE, confined, semi-confined, vessel burst and dust explosions
  • fire modelling – pool, jet, fireballs and assumptions
  • application of results – inputs to risk analysis, QRA, LOPA etc along with emergency response
    plans, escape and evacuation 

Who will benefit

  • project and plant managers, safety managers on COMAH sites responsible for preparing safety reports and interpreting modelling results
  • professionals using consequence models and/or their results and want further guidance on the bases, validity and uses of modelling
  • those new to the field of process safety
  • anyone would needs to understand the potential scale of accidents and the consequences


  • IChemE member: £1000 + VAT
  • Non member: £1200 + VAT

Course presenter

Peter Waite FIChemE, Director, Astrid Consulting

Peter is a Professional Process Safety Engineer, FIChemE, Chartered Engineer, scientist and mathematician with over 30 years’ experience in risk, safety, environmental and engineering consultancy.

He has worked on hundreds of projects for a wide variety of clients including The World Bank, National and State Government Departments, Local Authorities and public agencies (HSE, EA, Fire Services). In addition, he has worked for global energy companies, national oil companies, independents, drilling companies, chemical companies, mining companies and engineering design contractors.

18 hours CPDDuration for CPD recording purposes: 18 hours.

If you are recording mandatory CPD you should refer to your own regulator’s requirements as recognition of CPD hours may vary.

New CPD verification process from 2017. IChemE (in line with Engineering Council requirements) will be checking a random sample of Chartered Members’ and Fellows’ CPD records. More details >>

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IChemE is a registered charity in England & Wales (214379), and a charity registered in Scotland (SC 039661).