Rapidly decarbonising the global energy system is critical for addressing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation. Historically, most energy-economy models have overestimated the future costs of renewable energy technologies and underestimated their deployment, thereby overestimating total energy transition costs. These issues have driven calls for alternative approaches and more reliable technology forecasting methods. We use an approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods to estimate future energy system costs in a variety of scenarios. Our findings suggest that, compared to continuing with a fossil fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in net savings of many trillions of dollars – even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.
Rupert Way, Honorary Research Associate, University of Oxford
Rupert is an Honorary Research Associate at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and an Associate at the Oxford Institute for New Economic Thinking. He is also an Oxford Martin Fellow.
Rupert has a PhD in mathematics and his current research focuses on energy system modelling, technology forecasting, innovation and technological change, portfolio analysis, decision making under uncertainty and understanding strategies for accelerating the sustainable energy transition.
The material presented in this webinar has not been peer-reviewed. Any opinions are the presenter’s own and do not necessarily represent those of IChemE or the Sustainability Special Interest Group. The information is given in good faith but without any liability on the part of IChemE.
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